Document Detail

A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G7 countries.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  10866199     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
Human lifespan has increased enormously this century. But we remain uncertain about the forces that reduce mortality, and about the cost implications of ageing populations and their associated social burden. The poor understanding of the factors driving mortality decline, and the difficulty of forecasting mortality are due in part to the pronounced irregularity of annual to decadal mortality change. Here we examine mortality over five decades in the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US). In every country over this period, mortality at each age has declined exponentially at a roughly constant rate. This trend places a constraint on any theory of society-driven mortality decline, and provides a basis for stochastic mortality forecasting. We find that median forecasts of life expectancy are substantially larger than in existing official forecasts. In terms of the costs of ageing, we forecast values of the dependency ratio (that is, the ratio of people over 65 to working people) in 2050 that are between 6% (UK) and 40% (Japan) higher than official forecasts.
S Tuljapurkar; N Li; C Boe
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.    
Journal Detail:
Title:  Nature     Volume:  405     ISSN:  0028-0836     ISO Abbreviation:  Nature     Publication Date:  2000 Jun 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2000-07-07     Completed Date:  2000-07-07     Revised Date:  2006-11-15    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  0410462     Medline TA:  Nature     Country:  ENGLAND    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  789-92     Citation Subset:  IM    
Mountain View Research, Los Altos, California 94204, USA.
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MeSH Terms
Great Britain
Life Expectancy*
United States
Comment In:
Nature. 2000 Jun 15;405(6788):744-5   [PMID:  10866180 ]

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