Document Detail


The return of thalidomide: are birth defects surveillance systems ready?
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  9415679     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
In the 1960s, thalidomide caused limb deficiencies in thousands of infants worldwide. The limb deficiencies were frequently of the intercalary type. As a result, numerous countries started birth defect surveillance programs. In 1967, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) started the Metropolitan Atlanta Congenital Defects Program (MACDP), a population-based surveillance system, to provide early warning against new teratogens. Recent studies have shown that thalidomide may be beneficial for a range of conditions, including cancer and AIDS, and it may once again become widely available. Here, we examine the ability of MACDP to detect an increase in the birth prevalence of limb deficiency as an early warning of fetal exposure to thalidomide. We calculated base rates for all limb deficiencies, for bilateral nonsyndromic intercalary or preaxial deficiencies, and for all nonsyndromic intercalary limb deficiencies among Atlanta infants born from 1968 through 1993. We used relative risk estimates from previous studies and a range of pregnancy exposure rates for thalidomide. We tested the statistical power of MACDP to detect subtle changes in the birth prevalence of these defects using Poisson and cumulative sum (CUSUM) techniques. The base rates for all limb deficiencies, for bilateral intercalary or preaxial deficiencies, and for all intercalary limb deficiencies, were 0.53, 0.035, and 0.022/1,000, and the estimated relative risks were 175, 4,570, and 8,180, respectively. We varied the assumed rate of exposure to thalidomide from 1/10,000 to 5/100. With a 1/1,000 exposure rate, both Poisson and CUSUM techniques will detect a rate change in intercalary limb deficiency in about 6 months of monitoring, and a rate change in bilateral intercalary or preaxial deficiencies in about 12 months of monitoring. When monitoring all limb deficiencies, a pregnancy exposure rate of 3.5% or less would go unnoticed by the Poisson method and would take more than 50 years for the CUSUM method to signal an alarm with a 1/1,000 exposure rate. However, for rates of exposure less than 1/1,000, a progressively longer period of time or larger sample are needed to detect a rate change by both methods. Our findings highlight the importance of enlarging the monitored population and correct case classification in birth defects surveillance.
Authors:
Q Yang; M J Khoury; L M James; R S Olney; L J Paulozzi; J D Erickson
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article    
Journal Detail:
Title:  American journal of medical genetics     Volume:  73     ISSN:  0148-7299     ISO Abbreviation:  Am. J. Med. Genet.     Publication Date:  1997 Dec 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  1998-01-16     Completed Date:  1998-01-16     Revised Date:  2004-11-17    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  7708900     Medline TA:  Am J Med Genet     Country:  UNITED STATES    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  251-8     Citation Subset:  IM; X    
Affiliation:
Division of Birth Defects and Developmental Disabilities, National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA. qay0@cdc.gov
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MeSH Terms
Descriptor/Qualifier:
Abnormalities, Drug-Induced / epidemiology*,  prevention & control
Child, Preschool
Female
Georgia / epidemiology
Humans
Infant
Infant, Newborn
Limb Deformities, Congenital / chemically induced,  epidemiology
Maternal Exposure
Poisson Distribution
Population Surveillance
Pregnancy
Prevalence
Risk
Thalidomide / adverse effects*
Chemical
Reg. No./Substance:
50-35-1/Thalidomide
Comments/Corrections
Comment In:
Am J Med Genet. 1998 Dec 28;80(5):541-2   [PMID:  9880229 ]

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine


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