Document Detail

A quantum theoretical explanation for probability judgment errors.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  21480739     Owner:  NLM     Status:  In-Data-Review    
A quantum probability model is introduced and used to explain human probability judgment errors including the conjunction and disjunction fallacies, averaging effects, unpacking effects, and order effects on inference. On the one hand, quantum theory is similar to other categorization and memory models of cognition in that it relies on vector spaces defined by features and similarities between vectors to determine probability judgments. On the other hand, quantum probability theory is a generalization of Bayesian probability theory because it is based on a set of (von Neumann) axioms that relax some of the classic (Kolmogorov) axioms. The quantum model is compared and contrasted with other competing explanations for these judgment errors, including the anchoring and adjustment model for probability judgments. In the quantum model, a new fundamental concept in cognition is advanced-the compatibility versus incompatibility of questions and the effect this can have on the sequential order of judgments. We conclude that quantum information-processing principles provide a viable and promising new way to understand human judgment and reasoning. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved).
Jerome R Busemeyer; Emmanuel M Pothos; Riccardo Franco; Jennifer S Trueblood
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article    
Journal Detail:
Title:  Psychological review     Volume:  118     ISSN:  1939-1471     ISO Abbreviation:  Psychol Rev     Publication Date:  2011 Apr 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2011-04-12     Completed Date:  -     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  0376476     Medline TA:  Psychol Rev     Country:  United States    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  193-218     Citation Subset:  IM    
Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Indiana University.
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