Document Detail

A model of the transmission and control of genital herpes.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  10949427     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
BACKGROUND: Mathematical modeling of herpes simplex virus type 2 transmission can provide insight into the behavior of the epidemic and the effects of control measures. GOAL: To examine parameter sensitivity and assess control strategies. STUDY DESIGN: The model simulates transmission in a young, sexually active, nonmonogamous population. The population is divided into compartments representing disease status (susceptible, exposed, primary infectious, asymptomatic, recurrent, vaccinated), and flows between compartments are described by differential equations. RESULTS: With a base set of parameter values, the basic reproduction rate (R0) is 1.79, indicating that ultimate prevalence in this population will be 44%. The course of the epidemic is most sensitive to changes in behavioral parameters (time nonmonogamous and partner-change rate) and to the probability of transmission during the asymptomatic stage. CONCLUSION: In the absence of behavior change, efforts to control the epidemic must focus on vaccine development and prevention of transmission during both symptomatic and asymptomatic phases.
E A Newton; J M Kuder
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.    
Journal Detail:
Title:  Sexually transmitted diseases     Volume:  27     ISSN:  0148-5717     ISO Abbreviation:  Sex Transm Dis     Publication Date:  2000 Aug 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2000-11-21     Completed Date:  2001-01-04     Revised Date:  2006-11-15    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  7705941     Medline TA:  Sex Transm Dis     Country:  UNITED STATES    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  363-70     Citation Subset:  IM    
Biometrics Unit of Cornell University, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853-4401, USA.
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MeSH Terms
Herpes Genitalis / epidemiology,  prevention & control*,  transmission*,  virology
Herpesvirus 2, Human / physiology
Models, Biological*

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