Document Detail


A measure of model reliability.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  6693255     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
A method for evaluating predictive models is developed by giving a precise and statistically meaningful interpretation to the statement that a model is accurate within a factor of k. This method is applicable to any model for which there is a set [y1,..., yn] of observations corresponding to a set [x1,..., xn] of model predictions. We define a geometrically intuitive measure of model reliability kg in terms of the ratios yi/xi and a statistically rigorous measure ks in terms of 1n (yi/xi). For reasonably accurate models, kg and ks are in virtual agreement and thus can be used interchangeably as a reliability index. The index ks estimates a model parameter of the form exp[(V1 + V2)1/2], where V1 describes an observational variance and V2 is related to an uncertainty associated with the model itself. The computed value for ks is not unique but depends on the sample of observations. The probability distribution of ks can be characterized provided the observational distributions are lognormal, independent, and satisfy a homoscedasticity condition. These requirements are often satisfied by quantities of interest in radiation risk analyses. The reliability indices kg and ks may be applied even if the underlying observational distributions are not lognormal, although the probability distribution of ks cannot be characterized in this case.
Authors:
L R Williams; R W Leggett
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.    
Journal Detail:
Title:  Health physics     Volume:  46     ISSN:  0017-9078     ISO Abbreviation:  Health Phys     Publication Date:  1984 Jan 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  1984-02-27     Completed Date:  1984-02-27     Revised Date:  2007-11-15    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  2985093R     Medline TA:  Health Phys     Country:  UNITED STATES    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  85-95     Citation Subset:  IM    
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MeSH Terms
Descriptor/Qualifier:
Animals
Body Burden
Bone and Bones / radiation effects
Cesium Radioisotopes / analysis
Dogs
Humans
Models, Biological*
Probability
Radiation Effects*
Radioisotopes / analysis
Rats
Risk
Rubidium / analysis
Statistics as Topic
Strontium Radioisotopes / analysis
Time Factors
Chemical
Reg. No./Substance:
0/Cesium Radioisotopes; 0/Radioisotopes; 0/Strontium Radioisotopes; 7440-17-7/Rubidium

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine


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