Document Detail

A mathematical model for maximizing the value of phase 3 drug development portfolios incorporating budget constraints and risk.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  23300097     Owner:  NLM     Status:  Publisher    
We describe a value-driven approach to optimizing pharmaceutical portfolios. Our approach incorporates inputs from research and development and commercial functions by simultaneously addressing internal and external factors. This approach differentiates itself from current practices in that it recognizes the impact of study design parameters, sample size in particular, on the portfolio value. We develop an integer programming (IP) model as the basis for Bayesian decision analysis to optimize phase 3 development portfolios using expected net present value as the criterion. We show how this framework can be used to determine optimal sample sizes and trial schedules to maximize the value of a portfolio under budget constraints. We then illustrate the remarkable flexibility of the IP model to answer a variety of 'what-if' questions that reflect situations that arise in practice. We extend the IP model to a stochastic IP model to incorporate uncertainty in the availability of drugs from earlier development phases for phase 3 development in the future. We show how to use stochastic IP to re-optimize the portfolio development strategy over time as new information accumulates and budget changes occur. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Nitin R Patel; Suresh Ankolekar; Zoran Antonijevic; Natasa Rajicic
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Publication Detail:
Type:  JOURNAL ARTICLE     Date:  2013-1-9
Journal Detail:
Title:  Statistics in medicine     Volume:  -     ISSN:  1097-0258     ISO Abbreviation:  Stat Med     Publication Date:  2013 Jan 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2013-1-9     Completed Date:  -     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  8215016     Medline TA:  Stat Med     Country:  -    
Other Details:
Languages:  ENG     Pagination:  -     Citation Subset:  -    
Copyright Information:
Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Cytel Inc., 675 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02139, U.S.A.; Center for Biomedical Innovation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, U.S.A.
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