Document Detail

The large contribution of projected HFC emissions to future climate forcing.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  19549868     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
The consumption and emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are projected to increase substantially in the coming decades in response to regulation of ozone depleting gases under the Montreal Protocol. The projected increases result primarily from sustained growth in demand for refrigeration, air-conditioning (AC) and insulating foam products in developing countries assuming no new regulation of HFC consumption or emissions. New HFC scenarios are presented based on current hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) consumption in leading applications, patterns of replacements of HCFCs by HFCs in developed countries, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Global HFC emissions significantly exceed previous estimates after 2025 with developing country emissions as much as 800% greater than in developed countries in 2050. Global HFC emissions in 2050 are equivalent to 9-19% (CO(2)-eq. basis) of projected global CO(2) emissions in business-as-usual scenarios and contribute a radiative forcing equivalent to that from 6-13 years of CO(2) emissions near 2050. This percentage increases to 28-45% compared with projected CO(2) emissions in a 450-ppm CO(2) stabilization scenario. In a hypothetical scenario based on a global cap followed by 4% annual reductions in consumption, HFC radiative forcing is shown to peak and begin to decline before 2050.
Guus J M Velders; David W Fahey; John S Daniel; Mack McFarland; Stephen O Andersen
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article     Date:  2009-06-22
Journal Detail:
Title:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America     Volume:  106     ISSN:  1091-6490     ISO Abbreviation:  Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.     Publication Date:  2009 Jul 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2009-07-08     Completed Date:  2009-07-27     Revised Date:  2009-11-18    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  7505876     Medline TA:  Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A     Country:  United States    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  10949-54     Citation Subset:  IM    
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
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MeSH Terms
Air Pollution / analysis*
Carbon Dioxide
Conservation of Energy Resources
Developing Countries
Fluorocarbons / analysis*
Greenhouse Effect
Reg. No./Substance:
0/Fluorocarbons; 10028-15-6/Ozone; 124-38-9/Carbon Dioxide

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine

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