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The humble Bayesian: Model checking from a fully Bayesian perspective.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  23017054     Owner:  NLM     Status:  Publisher    
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
Gelman and Shalizi (2012) criticize what they call the 'usual story' in Bayesian statistics: that the distribution over hypotheses or models is the sole means of statistical inference, thus excluding model checking and revision, and that inference is inductivist rather than deductivist. They present an alternative hypothetico-deductive approach to remedy both shortcomings. We agree with Gelman and Shalizi's criticism of the usual story, but disagree on whether Bayesian confirmation theory should be abandoned. We advocate a humble Bayesian approach, in which Bayesian confirmation theory is the central inferential method. A humble Bayesian checks her models and critically assesses whether the Bayesian statistical inferences can reasonably be called upon to support real-world inferences.
Authors:
Richard D Morey; Jan-Willem Romeijn; Jeffrey N Rouder
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Publication Detail:
Type:  JOURNAL ARTICLE     Date:  2012-9-28
Journal Detail:
Title:  The British journal of mathematical and statistical psychology     Volume:  -     ISSN:  2044-8317     ISO Abbreviation:  Br J Math Stat Psychol     Publication Date:  2012 Sep 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2012-9-28     Completed Date:  -     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  0004047     Medline TA:  Br J Math Stat Psychol     Country:  -    
Other Details:
Languages:  ENG     Pagination:  -     Citation Subset:  -    
Copyright Information:
© 2012 The British Psychological Society.
Affiliation:
University of Groningen, The Netherlands.
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