Document Detail

The gastroschisis prognostic score: reliable outcome prediction in gastroschisis.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  22703779     Owner:  NLM     Status:  Publisher    
BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Disease-specific outcome predictors are required for gastroschisis. We derived and validated a gastroschisis prognostic score (GPS) based on bowel appearance after birth. METHODS: Visual scoring of bowel matting, necrosis, atresia, and perforation generated a novel gastroschisis bowel injury score recorded in a national database. Reweighting of score components by regression analysis led to assessments of model calibration and goodness of fit. The GPS was validated in subsequent cases. RESULTS: Records from 225 infants were used for model derivation. Only intestinal necrosis independently predicted mortality by regression analysis (odds ratio, 11.5; 95% confidence interval, 4.2-31.4). Model recalibration identified that a GPS of 4 or more predicted mortality in 75% of nonsurvivors and 99% of survivors (P = .0001). A GPS of 2 or more demonstrated significantly worse survival outcomes compared with scores of 0 or 1 (length of stay: P = .011, days to first enteral feed: P = .013, days on total parenteral nutrition: P = .006). Model validation with 184 new patients yielded continued high-quality discrimination of outcomes. The GPS demonstrated "near-perfect" interobserver reliability between 2 surgeons (κ ≥ 0.86). CONCLUSIONS: The GPS allows the accurate and reliable identification of high-risk groups for mortality and morbidity based on bowel appearance at birth. This information can drive discussions regarding family counseling, resource allocation, and new therapies for these patients.
Kyle N Cowan; Pramod S Puligandla; Jean-Martin Laberge; Erik D Skarsgard; Sarah Bouchard; Natalie Yanchar; Peter Kim; Shoo Lee; Douglas McMillan; Peter von Dadelszen;
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Publication Detail:
Journal Detail:
Title:  Journal of pediatric surgery     Volume:  47     ISSN:  1531-5037     ISO Abbreviation:  -     Publication Date:  2012 Jun 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2012-6-18     Completed Date:  -     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  0052631     Medline TA:  J Pediatr Surg     Country:  -    
Other Details:
Languages:  ENG     Pagination:  1111-1117     Citation Subset:  -    
Copyright Information:
Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1H 8L1.
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