Document Detail

A bayesian approach to parameter estimation for a crayfish (Procambarus spp.) bioaccumulation model.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  15379005     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
Bioaccumulation models are used to describe chemical uptake and clearances by organisms. Averaged input parameter values are traditionally used and yield point estimates of model outputs. Hence, the uncertainty and variability of model predictions are ignored. Probabilistic modeling approaches, such as Monte Carlo simulation and the Bayesian method, have been recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to provide a quantitative description of the degree of uncertainty and/or variability in risk estimates in ecological hazards and human health effects. In this study, a Bayesian analysis was conducted to account for the combined uncertainty and variability of model parameters in a crayfish bioaccumulation model. After a 5-d exposure in the LaBranche Wetlands (LA, USA), crayfish were analyzed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon concentrations and lipid fractions. The posterior distribution of model parameters were derived from the joint posterior parameter distributions using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach and the experimental data. The results were then used to predict the distribution of chrysene concentration versus time in the crayfish to compare the predicted ranges at the different study sites.
Hsin-I Lin; David W Berzins; Leann Myers; William J George; Assaf Abdelghani; Karen H Watanabe
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.    
Journal Detail:
Title:  Environmental toxicology and chemistry / SETAC     Volume:  23     ISSN:  0730-7268     ISO Abbreviation:  Environ. Toxicol. Chem.     Publication Date:  2004 Sep 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2004-09-21     Completed Date:  2005-04-14     Revised Date:  2006-11-15    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  8308958     Medline TA:  Environ Toxicol Chem     Country:  United States    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  2259-66     Citation Subset:  IM    
Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana 70112, USA.
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MeSH Terms
Astacoidea / chemistry,  metabolism*
Bayes Theorem
Environmental Exposure / analysis*
Lipids / analysis
Models, Biological
Polycyclic Hydrocarbons, Aromatic / analysis*
Water Pollutants, Chemical / analysis*
Reg. No./Substance:
0/Lipids; 0/Polycyclic Hydrocarbons, Aromatic; 0/Water Pollutants, Chemical

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