Document Detail

An analysis of an early-warning system to reduce abortions in dairy cattle in Denmark incorporating both financial and epidemiologic aspects.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  17169450     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
Emergency preparedness relies on the ability to detect patterns in rare incidents in an early stage of an outbreak in order to implement relevant actions. Early warning of an abortion storm as a result of infection with a notifiable disease, e.g. brucellosis, bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) or infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR), is a significant surveillance tool. This study used data from 507 large Danish dairy herds. A modified two-stage method for detecting an unusual increase in the abortion incidence was applied to the data. An alarm was considered true if an abortion were detected in the month following the alarm month, otherwise false. The total number of abortions that could potentially be avoided if effective action were taken ranged from 769 (22.9%) to 10 (0.3%), as the number of abortions required to set the alarm increased from 1 to 6. The vast majority of abortions could, however, not be predicted, much less prevented, given this early-warning system. The false to true alarm ratio was reduced when the number of abortions that set the alarm increased. The financial scenarios evaluated demonstrated that the value of an abortion, the cost of responding to an alarm and the efficiency of the actions are important for decision making when reporting an alarm. The presented model can readily be extended to other disease problems and multiple-time periods.
Tim E Carpenter; Mariann Chrièl; Matthias Greiner
Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't     Date:  2006-12-13
Journal Detail:
Title:  Preventive veterinary medicine     Volume:  78     ISSN:  0167-5877     ISO Abbreviation:  Prev. Vet. Med.     Publication Date:  2007 Jan 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2007-01-08     Completed Date:  2007-03-08     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  8217463     Medline TA:  Prev Vet Med     Country:  Netherlands    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  1-11     Citation Subset:  IM    
Center for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance (CADMS), One Shields Avenue, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA.
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MeSH Terms
Abortion, Veterinary / economics,  epidemiology,  prevention & control*
Cattle Diseases / economics,  epidemiology,  prevention & control*
Denmark / epidemiology
Disease Outbreaks / prevention & control,  veterinary*
Population Surveillance

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine

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