Document Detail

What limits the evolutionary emergence of pathogens?
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  23209168     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
The ability of a pathogen to cause an epidemic when introduced in a new host population often relies on its ability to adapt to this new environment. Here, we give a brief overview of recent theoretical and empirical studies of such evolutionary emergence of pathogens. We discuss the effects of several ecological and genetic factors that may affect the likelihood of emergence: migration, life history of the infectious agent, host heterogeneity, and the rate and effects of mutations. We contrast different modelling approaches and indicate how details in the way we model each step of a life cycle can have important consequences on the predicted probability of evolutionary emergence. These different theoretical perspectives yield important insights into optimal surveillance and intervention strategies, which should aim for a reduction in the emergence (and re-emergence) of infectious diseases.
S Gandon; M E Hochberg; R D Holt; T Day
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't    
Journal Detail:
Title:  Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences     Volume:  368     ISSN:  1471-2970     ISO Abbreviation:  Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond., B, Biol. Sci.     Publication Date:  2013 Jan 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2012-12-04     Completed Date:  2013-05-07     Revised Date:  2014-01-23    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  7503623     Medline TA:  Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci     Country:  England    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  20120086     Citation Subset:  IM    
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MeSH Terms
Adaptation, Biological*
Animal Migration
Evolution, Molecular*
Host Specificity*
Models, Biological
Mutation Rate
Population Density
Virus Diseases / transmission*,  virology
Viruses / genetics*,  pathogenicity
Grant Support

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