Document Detail


Weather and Age-Gender Effects on the Projection of Future Emergency Ambulance Demand in Hong Kong.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  23070758     Owner:  NLM     Status:  Publisher    
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
An accurate projection for ambulance demand is essential to enable better resource planning for the future that strives to either maintain current levels of services or reconsider future standards and expectations. More than 2 million cases of emergency room attendance in 2008 were obtained from the Hong Kong Hospital Authority to project the demand for its ambulance services in 2036. The projection of ambulance demand in 2036 was computed in consideration of changes in the age-gender structure between 2008 and 2036. The quadratic relation between average daily temperature and daily ambulance demand in 2036 was further explored by including and excluding age-gender demographic changes. Without accounting for changes in the age-gender structure, the 2036 ambulance demand for age groups of 65 and above were consistently underestimated (by 38%-65%), whereas those of younger age groups were overestimated (by 6%-37%). Moreover, changes in the 2008 to 2036 age-gender structure also shift upward and emphasize relationships between average daily temperature and daily ambulance demand at both ends of the quadratic U-shaped curve. Our study reveals a potential societal implication of ageing population on the demand for ambulance services.
Authors:
Poh-Chin Lai; Ho-Ting Wong
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Publication Detail:
Type:  JOURNAL ARTICLE     Date:  2012-10-15
Journal Detail:
Title:  Asia-Pacific journal of public health / Asia-Pacific Academic Consortium for Public Health     Volume:  -     ISSN:  1941-2479     ISO Abbreviation:  Asia Pac J Public Health     Publication Date:  2012 Oct 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2012-10-16     Completed Date:  -     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  8708538     Medline TA:  Asia Pac J Public Health     Country:  -    
Other Details:
Languages:  ENG     Pagination:  -     Citation Subset:  -    
Affiliation:
1The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, PR China.
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