| Water availability in +2°C and +4°C worlds. | |
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MedLine Citation:
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PMID: 21115515 Owner: NLM Status: MEDLINE |
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
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While the parties to the UNFCCC agreed in the December 2009 Copenhagen Accord that a 2°C global warming over pre-industrial levels should be avoided, current commitments on greenhouse gas emissions reductions from these same parties will lead to a 50 : 50 chance of warming greater than 3.5°C. Here, we evaluate the differences in impacts and adaptation issues for water resources in worlds corresponding to the policy objective (+2°C) and possible reality (+4°C). We simulate the differences in impacts on surface run-off and water resource availability using a global hydrological model driven by ensembles of climate models with global temperature increases of 2°C and 4°C. We combine these with UN-based population growth scenarios to explore the relative importance of population change and climate change for water availability. We find that the projected changes in global surface run-off from the ensemble show an increase in spatial coherence and magnitude for a +4°C world compared with a +2°C one. In a +2°C world, population growth in most large river basins tends to override climate change as a driver of water stress, while in a +4°C world, climate change becomes more dominant, even compensating for population effects where climate change increases run-off. However, in some basins where climate change has positive effects, the seasonality of surface run-off becomes increasingly amplified in a +4°C climate. |
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Authors:
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Fai Fung; Ana Lopez; Mark New |
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Publication Detail:
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Type: Journal Article |
Journal Detail:
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Title: Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences Volume: 369 ISSN: 1364-503X ISO Abbreviation: Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci Publication Date: 2011 Jan |
Date Detail:
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Created Date: 2010-11-30 Completed Date: 2011-09-06 Revised Date: 2013-04-24 |
Medline Journal Info:
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Nlm Unique ID: 101133385 Medline TA: Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci Country: England |
Other Details:
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Languages: eng Pagination: 99-116 Citation Subset: IM |
Affiliation:
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Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK. fai.fung@ouce.ox.ac.uk |
Export Citation:
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APA/MLA Format Download EndNote Download BibTex |
| MeSH Terms | |
Descriptor/Qualifier:
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Carbon Dioxide
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chemistry Climate Change* Conservation of Natural Resources Earth (Planet) Ecology Fresh Water Global Warming* Models, Theoretical Temperature Water / chemistry* Water Supply* |
| Chemical | |
Reg. No./Substance:
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124-38-9/Carbon Dioxide; 7732-18-5/Water |
From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine
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