Document Detail


U.S. births and limit cycle models.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  2737360     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
Lee's (1974) formal demographic feedback models summarize the implications for births and age-structure of neo-Malthusian theories of baby booms such as those of Easterlin. For some parameter values, such models imply sustained cycles, so-called "limit cycles", in births. Frauenthal and Swick recently reestimated a continuous-age version of Lee's basic cohort model with U.S. series and, contrary to Lee's original findings, concluded that "limit cycles oscillations have been occurring in U.S. births." This article disputes their conclusion, ascribing it to an inconsistency in detrending procedures. Furthermore, it corrects Lee's original conclusion by showing that his alternative period labor-force feedback model, estimated from U.S. series, leads to cycles of implausibly long period. This article thus reopens the question of whether any feedback model could account for the observed cycles in U.S. births.
Authors:
K W Wachter; R D Lee
Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.    
Journal Detail:
Title:  Demography     Volume:  26     ISSN:  0070-3370     ISO Abbreviation:  Demography     Publication Date:  1989 Feb 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  1989-08-09     Completed Date:  1989-08-09     Revised Date:  2007-11-14    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  0226703     Medline TA:  Demography     Country:  UNITED STATES    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  99-115     Citation Subset:  IM    
Affiliation:
Graduate Group in Demography, University of California, Berkeley 94720.
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MeSH Terms
Descriptor/Qualifier:
Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Birth Rate / trends*
Cohort Studies
Feedback
Female
Fertility
Humans
Infant, Newborn
Male
Mathematics
Middle Aged
Models, Theoretical*
Population Dynamics*
United States
Grant Support
ID/Acronym/Agency:
R0 HD18107/HD/NICHD NIH HHS

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine


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