Document Detail

Transmission dynamics of the recently-identified BYD virus causing duck egg-drop syndrome.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  22529985     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
Baiyangdian (BYD) virus is a recently-identified mosquito-borne flavivirus that causes severe disease in ducks, with extremely rapid transmission, up to 15% mortality within 10 days and 90% reduction in egg production on duck farms within 5 days of infection. Because of the zoonotic nature of flaviviruses, the characterization of BYD virus and its epidemiology are important public health concerns. Here, we develop a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of this novel virus. We validate the model against BYD outbreak data collected from duck farms in Southeast China, as well as experimental data obtained from an animal facility. Based on our model, the basic reproductive number of BYD virus is high (R(0) = 21) indicating that this virus is highly transmissible, consistent with the dramatic epidemiology observed in BYDV-affected duck farms. Our results indicate that younger ducks are more vulnerable to BYD disease and that ducks infected with BYD virus reduce egg production (to about 33% on average) for about 3 days post-infection; after 3 days infected ducks are no longer able to produce eggs. Using our model, we predict that control measures which reduce contact between mosquitoes and ducks such as mosquito nets are more effective than insecticides.
Naveen K Vaidya; Feng-bin Wang; Xingfu Zou; Lindi M Wahl
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't     Date:  2012-04-18
Journal Detail:
Title:  PloS one     Volume:  7     ISSN:  1932-6203     ISO Abbreviation:  PLoS ONE     Publication Date:  2012  
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2012-04-24     Completed Date:  2012-11-19     Revised Date:  2013-06-25    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  101285081     Medline TA:  PLoS One     Country:  United States    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  e35161     Citation Subset:  IM    
Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada.
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MeSH Terms
Disease Outbreaks
Disease Progression
Ducks / virology*
Flavivirus / isolation & purification
Flavivirus Infections / prevention & control,  transmission,  veterinary*
Models, Theoretical
Poultry Diseases / epidemiology,  prevention & control,  transmission*
Time Factors

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