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Tracking temporal trend breaks of anthropogenic change in Mussel Watch (MW) databases.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  23035902     Owner:  NLM     Status:  Publisher    
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
The potential for structural changes in time trend concentrations of mercury (Hg), lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), zinc (Zn) and copper (Cu) in the Mediterranean mussel, Mytilus galloprovincialis, was examined in Mussel Watch (MW) databases of metal pollution at eighteen coastal stations over a decadal period, from 1992 to 2007. Simultaneously, by using two statistical methods representing both the classical hypothesis-testing and the Bayesian approaches, we found single and multiple trend breaks for Hg (28% of the stations), Cd (17%) and Pb (11%) within trends in connection with anthropogenic and subtle natural environmental changes. Also called change point problems, if not accounted for, these could bias time trend investigations and interpretations. We calculated trend rate differences of 39% and switches up to one order of magnitude from classical linear trend assessments. We discuss sampling, analytical and environmental (both natural and anthropogenic) sources of dataset variabilities, showing that in practice, the overall sixteen year analytical performance could be as elevated as the yearly sampling reproducibility. We demonstrate that environmental time trend interpretations benefit from undertaking prior structural change analysis. After decades of MW marine chemical pollution assessments these have proven extremely useful, although the occurrence of trend breaks affect directly the long-term marine environmental monitoring strategies. Our results suggest a broader concept to design monitoring programmes in agreement with rapid global anthropogenic and environmental changes.
Authors:
Carlos Guitart; Adrian Hernández-Del-Valle; Juan Miguel Marin; José Benedicto
Publication Detail:
Type:  JOURNAL ARTICLE     Date:  2012-10-5
Journal Detail:
Title:  Environmental science & technology     Volume:  -     ISSN:  1520-5851     ISO Abbreviation:  Environ. Sci. Technol.     Publication Date:  2012 Oct 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2012-10-5     Completed Date:  -     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  0213155     Medline TA:  Environ Sci Technol     Country:  -    
Other Details:
Languages:  ENG     Pagination:  -     Citation Subset:  -    
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