Document Detail

Subjective Probabilities in Household Surveys.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  21643535     Owner:  NLM     Status:  Publisher    
Subjective probabilities are now collected on a number of large household surveys with the objective of providing data to better understand inter-temporal decision making. Comparison of subjective probabilities with actual outcomes shows that the probabilities have considerable predictive power in situations where individuals have considerable private information such as survival and retirement. In contrast the subjective probability of a stock market gain varies greatly across individuals even though no one has private information and the outcome is the same for everyone. An explanation is that there is considerable variation in accessing and processing information. Further, the subjective probability of a stock market gain is considerably lower than historical averages, providing an explanation for the relatively low frequency of stock holding. An important research objective will be to understand how individuals form their subjective probabilities.
Michael D Hurd
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Publication Detail:
Journal Detail:
Title:  Annual review of economics     Volume:  1     ISSN:  1941-1391     ISO Abbreviation:  -     Publication Date:  2009 Jun 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2011-6-6     Completed Date:  -     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  101537716     Medline TA:  Annu Rev Econom     Country:  -    
Other Details:
Languages:  ENG     Pagination:  543-562     Citation Subset:  -    
RAND and NBER October, 2008.
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Grant Support
P01 AG008291-15//NIA NIH HHS

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