| Six rules for accurate effective forecasting. | |
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MedLine Citation:
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PMID: 17642131 Owner: NLM Status: MEDLINE |
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
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The primary goal of forecasting is to identify the full range of possibilities facing a company, society, or the world at large. In this article, Saffo demythologizes the forecasting process to help executives become sophisticated and participative consumers of forecasts, rather than passive absorbers. He illustrates how to use forecasts to at once broaden understanding of possibilities and narrow the decision space within which one must exercise intuition. The events of 9/11, for example, were a much bigger surprise than they should have been. After all, airliners flown into monuments were the stuff of Tom Clancy novels in the 1990s, and everyone knew that terrorists had a very personal antipathy toward the World Trade Center. So why was 9/11 such a surprise? What can executives do to avoid being blind-sided by other such wild cards, be they radical shifts in markets or the seemingly sudden emergence of disruptive technologies? In describing what forecasters are trying to achieve, Saffo outlines six simple, commonsense rules that smart managers should observe as they embark on a voyage of discovery with professional forecasters. Map a cone of uncertainty, he advises, look for the S curve, embrace the things that don't fit, hold strong opinions weakly, look back twice as far as you look forward, and know when not to make a forecast. |
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Authors:
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Paul Saffo |
Publication Detail:
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Type: Journal Article |
Journal Detail:
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Title: Harvard business review Volume: 85 ISSN: 0017-8012 ISO Abbreviation: Harv Bus Rev Publication Date: 2007 Jul-Aug |
Date Detail:
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Created Date: 2007-07-23 Completed Date: 2007-12-20 Revised Date: - |
Medline Journal Info:
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Nlm Unique ID: 9875796 Medline TA: Harv Bus Rev Country: United States |
Other Details:
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Languages: eng Pagination: 122-31, 193 Citation Subset: H |
Affiliation:
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paul@saffo.com |
Export Citation:
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APA/MLA Format Download EndNote Download BibTex |
| MeSH Terms | |
Descriptor/Qualifier:
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Administrative Personnel
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psychology Decision Making* Efficiency, Organizational Forecasting / methods* Guidelines as Topic Planning Techniques Safety Management / methods* |
From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine
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