Document Detail

Simulating phenological shifts in French temperate forests under two climatic change scenarios and four driving global circulation models.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  20300777     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
After modeling the large-scale climate response patterns of leaf unfolding, leaf coloring and growing season length of evergreen and deciduous French temperate trees, we predicted the effects of eight future climate scenarios on phenological events. We used the ground observations from 103 temperate forests (10 species and 3,708 trees) from the French Renecofor Network and for the period 1997-2006. We applied RandomForest algorithms to predict phenological events from climatic and ecological variables. With the resulting models, we drew maps of phenological events throughout France under present climate and under two climatic change scenarios (A2, B2) and four global circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM2, CSIRO2 and PCM). We compared current observations and predicted values for the periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. On average, spring development of oaks precedes that of beech, which precedes that of conifers. Annual cycles in budburst and leaf coloring are highly correlated with January, March-April and October-November weather conditions through temperature, global solar radiation or potential evapotranspiration depending on species. At the end of the twenty-first century, each model predicts earlier budburst (mean: 7 days) and later leaf coloring (mean: 13 days) leading to an average increase in the growing season of about 20 days (for oaks and beech stands). The A2-HadCM3 hypothesis leads to an increase of up to 30 days in many areas. As a consequence of higher predicted warming during autumn than during winter or spring, shifts in leaf coloring dates appear greater than trends in leaf unfolding. At a regional scale, highly differing climatic response patterns were observed.
François Lebourgeois; Jean-Claude Pierrat; Vincent Perez; Christian Piedallu; Sébastien Cecchini; Erwin Ulrich
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article     Date:  2010-03-19
Journal Detail:
Title:  International journal of biometeorology     Volume:  54     ISSN:  1432-1254     ISO Abbreviation:  Int J Biometeorol     Publication Date:  2010 Sep 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2010-08-19     Completed Date:  2010-12-02     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  0374716     Medline TA:  Int J Biometeorol     Country:  United States    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  563-81     Citation Subset:  IM    
Laboratoire d'Etude des Ressources Forêt Bois (LERFoB), AgroParisTech, ENGREF, UMR1092, 14 rue Girardet, 54000 Nancy, France.
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MeSH Terms
Climate Change*
Environmental Monitoring*
Ferns / growth & development
Models, Biological*
Plant Leaves / growth & development
Solar Energy
Time Factors
Trees / classification,  growth & development*

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