Document Detail


Seasonality and the persistence and invasion of measles.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  17327206     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
The critical community size (CCS) for measles, which separates persistent from extinction-prone populations, is arguably the best understood stochastic threshold in ecology. Using simple models, we explore a relatively neglected relationship of how the CCS scales with birth rate. A predominantly positive relationship of persistence with birth rate is complicated by the accompanying dynamical transitions of the underlying deterministic process. We show that these transitions imply a lower CCS for high birth rate less developed countries and contrary to the experience in lower birth rate, industrial countries, the CCS may increase after vaccination. We also consider the evolutionary implications of the CCS for the origin of measles; this analysis explores how the deterministic and stochastic thresholds for invasion and persistence set limits on the mechanism by which this highly infectious pathogen could have successfully colonized its human host.
Authors:
Andrew J K Conlan; Bryan T Grenfell
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Comparative Study; Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.    
Journal Detail:
Title:  Proceedings. Biological sciences / The Royal Society     Volume:  274     ISSN:  0962-8452     ISO Abbreviation:  Proc. Biol. Sci.     Publication Date:  2007 May 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2007-03-21     Completed Date:  2007-07-27     Revised Date:  2013-06-06    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  101245157     Medline TA:  Proc Biol Sci     Country:  England    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  1133-41     Citation Subset:  IM    
Affiliation:
DAMTP, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WA, UK. a.j.k.conlan@damtp.cam.ac.uk
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MeSH Terms
Descriptor/Qualifier:
Birth Rate*
Disease Outbreaks*
Humans
Measles / epidemiology*
Models, Biological*
Population Density*
Seasons*
Grant Support
ID/Acronym/Agency:
//Wellcome Trust
Comments/Corrections

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine


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