| Seasonal infectious disease epidemiology. | |
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MedLine Citation:
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PMID: 16959647 Owner: NLM Status: MEDLINE |
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
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Seasonal change in the incidence of infectious diseases is a common phenomenon in both temperate and tropical climates. However, the mechanisms responsible for seasonal disease incidence, and the epidemiological consequences of seasonality, are poorly understood with rare exception. Standard epidemiological theory and concepts such as the basic reproductive number R0 no longer apply, and the implications for interventions that themselves may be periodic, such as pulse vaccination, have not been formally examined. This paper examines the causes and consequences of seasonality, and in so doing derives several new results concerning vaccination strategy and the interpretation of disease outbreak data. It begins with a brief review of published scientific studies in support of different causes of seasonality in infectious diseases of humans, identifying four principal mechanisms and their association with different routes of transmission. It then describes the consequences of seasonality for R0, disease outbreaks, endemic dynamics and persistence. Finally, a mathematical analysis of routine and pulse vaccination programmes for seasonal infections is presented. The synthesis of seasonal infectious disease epidemiology attempted by this paper highlights the need for further empirical and theoretical work. |
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Authors:
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Nicholas C Grassly; Christophe Fraser |
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Publication Detail:
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Type: Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
Journal Detail:
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Title: Proceedings. Biological sciences / The Royal Society Volume: 273 ISSN: 0962-8452 ISO Abbreviation: Proc. Biol. Sci. Publication Date: 2006 Oct |
Date Detail:
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Created Date: 2006-09-08 Completed Date: 2007-01-16 Revised Date: 2009-11-18 |
Medline Journal Info:
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Nlm Unique ID: 101245157 Medline TA: Proc Biol Sci Country: England |
Other Details:
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Languages: eng Pagination: 2541-50 Citation Subset: IM |
Affiliation:
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Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK. n.grassly@imperial.ac.uk |
Export Citation:
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| MeSH Terms | |
Descriptor/Qualifier:
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Animals Child Communicable Disease Control Communicable Diseases / epidemiology*, immunology Disease Outbreaks* Disease Vectors Endemic Diseases Humans Incidence Microbial Viability Seasons* Vaccination |
| Comments/Corrections | |
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