Document Detail


Scenario and multiple criteria decision analysis for energy and environmental security of military and industrial installations.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  21136455     Owner:  NLM     Status:  Publisher    
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
Military and industrial facilities need secure and reliable power generation. Grid outages can result in cascading infrastructure failures as well as security breaches and should be avoided. Adding redundancy and increasing reliability can require additional environmental, financial, logistical, and other considerations and resources. Uncertain scenarios consisting of emergent environmental conditions, regulatory changes, growth of regional energy demands, and other concerns result in further complications. Decisions on selecting energy alternatives are made on an ad hoc basis. The present work integrates scenario analysis and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to identify combinations of impactful emergent conditions and to perform a preliminary benefits analysis of energy and environmental security investments for industrial and military installations. Application of a traditional MCDA approach would require significant stakeholder elicitations under multiple uncertain scenarios. The approach proposed in this study develops and iteratively adjusts a scoring function for investment alternatives to find the scenarios with the most significant impacts on installation security. A robust prioritization of investment alternatives can be achieved by integrating stakeholder preferences and focusing modeling and decision-analytical tools on a few key emergent conditions and scenarios. The approach is described and demonstrated for a campus of several dozen interconnected industrial buildings within a major installation. Integr Environ Assess Manag © 2010 SETAC.
Authors:
Christopher W Karvetski; James H Lambert; Igor Linkov
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Publication Detail:
Type:  JOURNAL ARTICLE     Date:  2010-8-27
Journal Detail:
Title:  Integrated environmental assessment and management     Volume:  -     ISSN:  1551-3793     ISO Abbreviation:  -     Publication Date:  2010 Aug 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2010-12-7     Completed Date:  -     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  101234521     Medline TA:  Integr Environ Assess Manag     Country:  -    
Other Details:
Languages:  ENG     Pagination:  -     Citation Subset:  -    
Affiliation:
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems, University of Virginia Charlottesville, Virginia, USA.
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