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Scenario analysis for sustainable development of Chongming Island: Water resources sustainability.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  23063918     Owner:  NLM     Status:  Publisher    
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
With the socioeconomic and urban development of Chongming Island (the largest alluvial island in the world), water demand is rapidly growing. To make adjustments to the water utilization structure of each industry, allocate limited water resources, and increase local water use efficiency, this study performed a scenario analysis for the water sustainability of Chongming Island. Four different scenarios were performed to assess the water resource availability by 2020. The growth rate for water demand will be much higher than that of water supply under a serious situation prediction. The water supply growth volume will be 2.22×10(8)m(3) from 2010 to 2020 under Scenario I and Scenario II while the corresponding water demand growth volume will be 2.74×10(8)m(3) and 2.64×10(8)m(3), respectively. There will be a rapid growth in water use benefit under both high and low development modes. The water use benefit will be about 50CNY/m(3) under Scenarios I and II in 2020. The production structure will need to be adjusted for sustainable utilization of water resources. Sewage drainage but not the forest and grass coverage rate will be a major obstacle to future development and environmental quality. According to a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, Scenario II is finally deemed to be the most desirable plan, suggesting that the policy of rapid socioeconomic development and better environmental protection may achieve the most sustainable development of Chongming Island in the future.
Authors:
Xiong Ni; Yanqing Wu; Jun Wu; Jian Lu; P Chris Wilson
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Publication Detail:
Type:  JOURNAL ARTICLE     Date:  2012-10-10
Journal Detail:
Title:  The Science of the total environment     Volume:  439C     ISSN:  1879-1026     ISO Abbreviation:  Sci. Total Environ.     Publication Date:  2012 Oct 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2012-10-15     Completed Date:  -     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  0330500     Medline TA:  Sci Total Environ     Country:  -    
Other Details:
Languages:  ENG     Pagination:  129-135     Citation Subset:  -    
Copyright Information:
Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Affiliation:
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, PR China; Shanghai Water Information Center, Jiangsu Road 358, Shanghai 200050, PR China.
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