Document Detail


Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  18757271     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
The 2007 Bali conference heard repeated calls for reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 50 per cent by 2050 to avoid exceeding the 2 degrees C threshold. While such endpoint targets dominate the policy agenda, they do not, in isolation, have a scientific basis and are likely to lead to dangerously misguided policies. To be scientifically credible, policy must be informed by an understanding of cumulative emissions and associated emission pathways. This analysis considers the implications of the 2 degrees C threshold and a range of post-peak emission reduction rates for global emission pathways and cumulative emission budgets. The paper examines whether empirical estimates of greenhouse gas emissions between 2000 and 2008, a period typically modelled within scenario studies, combined with short-term extrapolations of current emissions trends, significantly constrains the 2000-2100 emission pathways. The paper concludes that it is increasingly unlikely any global agreement will deliver the radical reversal in emission trends required for stabilization at 450 ppmv carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e). Similarly, the current framing of climate change cannot be reconciled with the rates of mitigation necessary to stabilize at 550 ppmv CO2e and even an optimistic interpretation suggests stabilization much below 650 ppmv CO2e is improbable.
Authors:
Kevin Anderson; Alice Bows
Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article; Review    
Journal Detail:
Title:  Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences     Volume:  366     ISSN:  1364-503X     ISO Abbreviation:  Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci     Publication Date:  2008 Nov 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2008-09-25     Completed Date:  2008-12-09     Revised Date:  2013-04-24    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  101133385     Medline TA:  Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci     Country:  England    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  3863-82     Citation Subset:  IM    
Affiliation:
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Mechanical, Civil and Aerospace Engineering, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
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MeSH Terms
Descriptor/Qualifier:
Conservation of Natural Resources / methods*
Disasters / prevention & control*
Ecosystem*
Engineering / trends*
Forecasting*
Greenhouse Effect*
Vehicle Emissions / prevention & control*
Chemical
Reg. No./Substance:
0/Vehicle Emissions

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine


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