Document Detail

Rapid fertility decline in Iran: analysis of intermediate variables.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  17850688     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
The remarkable decline in fertility in Iran, which saw the total fertility rate fall from 7 children per woman in 1986 to 2 in 2000, has received only limited analysis in the demographic literature. Using the 2000 Iran Demographic and Health Survey and Bongaarts' age-specific fertility model, this paper examines the role of the major proximate determinants of fertility in bringing about the rapid decrease in fertility in Iran. The analysis indicates that contraception had the largest effect on fertility, accounting for 61% of the reduction in fertility from its theoretical maximum. The fertility-inhibiting effect of marriage patterns accounted for an additional 31% reduction, and was most important among the young. Further analysis of contraceptive behaviour suggests that the current period fertility rate of 2.0 children per woman is an outcome of a synchronization of delaying and spacing of births among younger women with stopping of childbearing among women in the middle and late reproductive ages. The policy implications of the results are discussed.
Amir Erfani; Kevin McQuillan
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Comparative Study; Journal Article     Date:  2007-09-13
Journal Detail:
Title:  Journal of biosocial science     Volume:  40     ISSN:  1469-7599     ISO Abbreviation:  J Biosoc Sci     Publication Date:  2008 May 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2008-03-18     Completed Date:  2008-05-21     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  0177346     Medline TA:  J Biosoc Sci     Country:  England    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  459-78     Citation Subset:  IM    
Population Studies Centre, Department of Sociology, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada.
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MeSH Terms
Contraception / statistics & numerical data*
Contraceptive Agents*
Family Planning Services
Health Surveys
Infertility / epidemiology*
Interviews as Topic
Middle Aged
Models, Statistical
Time Factors
Reg. No./Substance:
0/Contraceptive Agents

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