Document Detail


Problems with risk reclassification methods for evaluating prediction models.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  21555714     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
For comparing the performance of a baseline risk prediction model with one that includes an additional predictor, a risk reclassification analysis strategy has been proposed. The first step is to cross-classify risks calculated according to the 2 models for all study subjects. Summary measures including the percentage of reclassification and the percentage of correct reclassification are calculated, along with 2 reclassification calibration statistics. The author shows that interpretations of the proposed summary measures and P values are problematic. The author's recommendation is to display the reclassification table, because it shows interesting information, but to use alternative methods for summarizing and comparing model performance. The Net Reclassification Index has been suggested as one alternative method. The author argues for reporting components of the Net Reclassification Index because they are more clinically relevant than is the single numerical summary measure.
Authors:
Margaret S Pepe
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural     Date:  2011-05-09
Journal Detail:
Title:  American journal of epidemiology     Volume:  173     ISSN:  1476-6256     ISO Abbreviation:  Am. J. Epidemiol.     Publication Date:  2011 Jun 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2011-05-25     Completed Date:  2011-08-09     Revised Date:  2014-11-14    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  7910653     Medline TA:  Am J Epidemiol     Country:  United States    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  1327-35     Citation Subset:  IM    
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MeSH Terms
Descriptor/Qualifier:
Algorithms
Epidemiologic Methods*
Humans
Models, Statistical
Risk Assessment / classification*,  statistics & numerical data
Risk Factors
Grant Support
ID/Acronym/Agency:
CA129934/CA/NCI NIH HHS; GM054438/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS; R01 CA152089/CA/NCI NIH HHS; R01 GM054438/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS; U01 CA086368/CA/NCI NIH HHS; U24 CA086368/CA/NCI NIH HHS
Comments/Corrections
Comment In:
Am J Epidemiol. 2011 Oct 1;174(7):874-5; author reply 875   [PMID:  21868373 ]

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine


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