Document Detail

Probabilistic model for contamination of egg dishes with Salmonella spp. made from shell eggs produced on the island of Ireland.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  19762102     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
A quantitative model was constructed to estimate the probability that a serving of food containing eggs produced on the island of Ireland is contaminated with Salmonella spp. The model is based on the prevalence of contaminated eggs at the time of lay and a set of parameters which describe the pooling of eggs in the home and in catering situations. Both external and internal contamination of the eggs by Salmonella spp. was considered. The model estimates that there is a 90% chance that the probability of a serving of food being contaminated is between 0.0043% and 0.038%. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that egg prevalence drives this low probability and that, at the current level of egg prevalence at the time of lay, pooling of eggs has a minor effect. These results indicate the importance of maintaining the low prevalence of contaminated eggs at the time of lay to minimise the risk of human cases of salmonellosis from consumption of eggs.
Louise Kelly; Laura Murchie; Bin Xia; Paul Whyte; Robert H Madden
Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't     Date:  2009-08-11
Journal Detail:
Title:  International journal of food microbiology     Volume:  135     ISSN:  1879-3460     ISO Abbreviation:  Int. J. Food Microbiol.     Publication Date:  2009 Nov 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2009-10-09     Completed Date:  2010-02-02     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  8412849     Medline TA:  Int J Food Microbiol     Country:  Netherlands    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  187-92     Citation Subset:  IM    
Department of Statistics and Modelling Science, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, G1 1XH, United Kingdom.
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MeSH Terms
Eggs / microbiology*
Food Microbiology*
Models, Statistical*
Salmonella Infections / prevention & control*
Salmonella Infections, Animal / diagnosis,  epidemiology
Sensitivity and Specificity

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