Document Detail

Probabilistic Classification of Age by Third Molar Development: The Use of Soft Evidence.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  22803954     Owner:  NLM     Status:  Publisher    
  This study introduces a method to classify individuals according to an age threshold, given sex and third molars' dental maturity measured on the Demirjian scale by expressing uncertainty on dental evidence (soft evidence). We introduced a procedure to learn the parameters of the Naïve Bayes model, and we discussed two classification rules. The model was estimated and tested on 559 Italians aged 16-22. Two experts provided the dental evaluations, and the model was estimated for each of them. We evaluated the coherence of the evidence provided by the experts. Some indexes have been proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of the models, emphasizing how the experts' ability and the technology affect the results. We introduced two benchmarks, one based on the sample distribution per sex and age: in this case, probability of correct classification increases 22% and the proportion of false adults impressively decreases 80.2%; the other benchmark, obtained by simulating hard evidence, shows how the use of soft evidence increases the proportion of correct classification 3.1% and decreases the crucial proportion of false adults about 20%. Similarly, the proportion of false minors decreases about 5.3%.
Fabio Corradi; Vilma Pinchi; Iljà Barsanti; Stefano Garatti
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Publication Detail:
Type:  JOURNAL ARTICLE     Date:  2012-7-16
Journal Detail:
Title:  Journal of forensic sciences     Volume:  -     ISSN:  1556-4029     ISO Abbreviation:  -     Publication Date:  2012 Jul 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2012-7-18     Completed Date:  -     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  0375370     Medline TA:  J Forensic Sci     Country:  -    
Other Details:
Languages:  ENG     Pagination:  -     Citation Subset:  -    
Copyright Information:
© 2012 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.
Department of Statistics G. Parenti, University of Florence, 59, Viale Morgagni, Florence, 50134 Italy. Department of Anatomy, Histology and Legal Medicine, University of Florence, Largo Brambilla 3, Florence, 50134, Italy. Department of Dentistry, Hospital of Desio and Vimercate, via Mosè Bianchi 9, Carate Brianza (MZ) 20048, Italy.
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