| Prior probability (the pretest best guess) affects predictive values of diagnostic tests. | |
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MedLine Citation:
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PMID: 21554365 Owner: NLM Status: MEDLINE |
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
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Authors who publish evaluations of dichotomous (yes/no) diagnostic tests often include the predictive values of their test at a single prior probability (eg, the prevalence of the target disease within the evaluation data set). The objectives of this technical note are to demonstrate why single-probability predictive values are misleading and to show a better way to display positive predictive values (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) for a newly evaluated test. Secondly, this technical note will show readers how to calculate predictive values from only sensitivity and specificity for any desired prior probability. As prior probability increases from 0% to 100%, PPV increases from 0% to 100%, but NPV goes in the opposite direction (drops from 100% to 0%). Because prior probabilities vary so greatly across situations, predictive values should be provided in publications for the full range of potential prior probabilities (if provided at all). This is easily done with a 2-curve graph displaying the predictive values (y-axis) against the prior probability (x-axis). |
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Authors:
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Hollis N Erb |
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Publication Detail:
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Type: Journal Article Date: 2011-05-10 |
Journal Detail:
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Title: Veterinary clinical pathology / American Society for Veterinary Clinical Pathology Volume: 40 ISSN: 1939-165X ISO Abbreviation: Vet Clin Pathol Publication Date: 2011 Jun |
Date Detail:
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Created Date: 2011-06-02 Completed Date: 2011-09-21 Revised Date: 2012-10-04 |
Medline Journal Info:
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Nlm Unique ID: 9880575 Medline TA: Vet Clin Pathol Country: United States |
Other Details:
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Languages: eng Pagination: 154-8 Citation Subset: IM |
Copyright Information:
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©2011 American Society for Veterinary Clinical Pathology. |
Affiliation:
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Section of Epidemiology, Department of Population Medicine & Diagnostic Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA. hne1@cornell.edu |
Export Citation:
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APA/MLA Format Download EndNote Download BibTex |
| MeSH Terms | |
Descriptor/Qualifier:
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Animals Clinical Laboratory Techniques / veterinary* Data Interpretation, Statistical Predictive Value of Tests* Probability Sensitivity and Specificity |
| Comments/Corrections | |
Comment In:
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Vet Clin Pathol. 2011 Dec;40(4):410-1; author reply 411
[PMID:
22136473
]
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From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine
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