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A Preoperative Predictive Scoring System for Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula after Pancreaticoduodenectomy.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  21913138     Owner:  NLM     Status:  Publisher    
BACKGROUND: Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) remains a leading cause of morbidity after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). In the present study we sought to establish a preoperative scoring system with which to predict this complication. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The clinical records of 387 consecutive patients who underwent PD for periampullary tumor between 2004 and 2009 were reviewed retrospectively. Patients were divided into two groups; 279 consecutive patients constituted the study group and the next 108 patients constituted the validation group. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed using preoperative and surgical factors potentially influencing grade B or C POPF in the study group, and a score to predict POPF was constructed. This score was confirmed in the validation group. RESULTS: In the study group, grade A POPF was recognized in 45 patients (16%), grade B in 98 (35%), and grade C in 5 (2%). A preoperative predictive scoring system for POPF (0-7 points) was constructed using the following 5 factors; main pancreatic duct index <0.25 (2 points), away from portal vein on computed tomography (2 points), disease other than pancreatic cancer (1 point), male (1 point), and intra-abdominal thickness >65 mm (1 point). The nomogram showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.808. This scoring system was highly predictive for grade B or C POPF in the validation group (AUC = 0.834). CONCLUSIONS: The present scoring system satisfactorily predicted the occurrence of POPF and thus will be useful for the perioperative risk management of patients undergoing PD in a high-volume center hospital.
Yusuke Yamamoto; Yoshihiro Sakamoto; Satoshi Nara; Minoru Esaki; Kazuaki Shimada; Tomoo Kosuge
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Publication Detail:
Type:  JOURNAL ARTICLE     Date:  2011-9-13
Journal Detail:
Title:  World journal of surgery     Volume:  -     ISSN:  1432-2323     ISO Abbreviation:  -     Publication Date:  2011 Sep 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2011-9-13     Completed Date:  -     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  7704052     Medline TA:  World J Surg     Country:  -    
Other Details:
Languages:  ENG     Pagination:  -     Citation Subset:  -    
Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery Division, National Cancer Center Hospital, Tokyo, Japan.
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