Document Detail

Predictors of long-term prognosis of depression.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  22025655     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
BACKGROUND: Many people with depression experience repeated episodes. Previous research into the predictors of chronic depression has focused primarily on the clinical features of the disease; however, little is known about the broader spectrum of sociodemographic and health factors inherent in its development. Our aim was to identify factors associated with a long-term negative prognosis of depression.
METHODS: We included 585 people aged 16 years and older who participated in the 2000/01 cycle of the National Population Health Survey and who reported experiencing a major depressive episode in 2000/01. The primary outcome was the course of depression until 2006/07. We grouped individuals into trajectories of depression using growth trajectory models. We included demographic, mental and physical health factors as predictors in the multivariable regression model to compare people with different trajectories.
RESULTS: Participants fell into two main depression trajectories: those whose depression resolved and did not recur (44.7%) and those who experienced repeated episodes (55.3%). In the multivariable model, daily smoking (OR 2.68, 95% CI 1.54-4.67), low mastery (i.e., feeling that life circumstances are beyond one's control) (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.03-1.18) and history of depression (OR 3.5, 95% CI 1.95-6.27) were significant predictors (p < 0.05) of repeated episodes of depression.
INTERPRETATION: People with major depression who were current smokers or had low levels of mastery were at an increased risk of repeated episodes of depression. Future studies are needed to confirm the predictive value of these variables and to evaluate their accuracy for diagnosis and as a guide to treatment.
Ian Colman; Kiyuri Naicker; Yiye Zeng; Anushka Ataullahjan; Ambikaipakan Senthilselvan; Scott B Patten
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't     Date:  2011-10-24
Journal Detail:
Title:  CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne     Volume:  183     ISSN:  1488-2329     ISO Abbreviation:  CMAJ     Publication Date:  2011 Nov 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2011-11-22     Completed Date:  2012-01-19     Revised Date:  2013-06-27    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  9711805     Medline TA:  CMAJ     Country:  Canada    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  1969-76     Citation Subset:  AIM; IM    
School of Public Health, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta.
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MeSH Terms
Cohort Studies
Depressive Disorder / diagnosis*,  etiology,  psychology
Health Status
Health Surveys
Middle Aged
Predictive Value of Tests
Quality of Life
Risk Factors
Socioeconomic Factors
Grant Support
MOP93750//Canadian Institutes of Health Research
Comment In:
CMAJ. 2011 Nov 22;183(17):1955-6   [PMID:  22025651 ]

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine

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