Document Detail

The Predictive Validity of Subjective Mortality Expectations: Evidence From the Health and Retirement Study.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  23154962     Owner:  NLM     Status:  Publisher    
Several recent studies suggest that individual subjective survival forecasts are powerful predictors of both mortality and behavior. Using 15 years of longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study, I present an alternative view. Across a wide range of ages, predictions of in-sample mortality rates based on subjective forecasts are substantially less accurate than predictions based on population life tables. Subjective forecasts also fail to capture fundamental properties of senescence, including increases in yearly mortality rates with age. To shed light on the mechanisms underlying these biases, I develop and estimate a latent-factor model of how individuals form subjective forecasts. The estimates of this model's parameters imply that these forecasts incorporate several important sources of measurement error that arguably swamp the useful information they convey.
Todd E Elder
Publication Detail:
Type:  JOURNAL ARTICLE     Date:  2012-11-15
Journal Detail:
Title:  Demography     Volume:  -     ISSN:  0070-3370     ISO Abbreviation:  Demography     Publication Date:  2012 Nov 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2012-11-16     Completed Date:  -     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  0226703     Medline TA:  Demography     Country:  -    
Other Details:
Languages:  ENG     Pagination:  -     Citation Subset:  -    
Department of Economics, Michigan State University, 110 Marshall-Adams Hall, East Lansing, MI, 48824, USA,
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