Document Detail


Prediction and prevention of the next pandemic zoonosis.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  23200504     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
Most pandemics--eg, HIV/AIDS, severe acute respiratory syndrome, pandemic influenza--originate in animals, are caused by viruses, and are driven to emerge by ecological, behavioural, or socioeconomic changes. Despite their substantial effects on global public health and growing understanding of the process by which they emerge, no pandemic has been predicted before infecting human beings. We review what is known about the pathogens that emerge, the hosts that they originate in, and the factors that drive their emergence. We discuss challenges to their control and new efforts to predict pandemics, target surveillance to the most crucial interfaces, and identify prevention strategies. New mathematical modelling, diagnostic, communications, and informatics technologies can identify and report hitherto unknown microbes in other species, and thus new risk assessment approaches are needed to identify microbes most likely to cause human disease. We lay out a series of research and surveillance opportunities and goals that could help to overcome these challenges and move the global pandemic strategy from response to pre-emption.
Authors:
Stephen S Morse; Jonna A K Mazet; Mark Woolhouse; Colin R Parrish; Dennis Carroll; William B Karesh; Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio; W Ian Lipkin; Peter Daszak
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.; Review    
Journal Detail:
Title:  Lancet     Volume:  380     ISSN:  1474-547X     ISO Abbreviation:  Lancet     Publication Date:  2012 Dec 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2012-12-03     Completed Date:  2012-12-17     Revised Date:  2013-12-04    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  2985213R     Medline TA:  Lancet     Country:  England    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  1956-65     Citation Subset:  AIM; IM    
Copyright Information:
Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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MeSH Terms
Descriptor/Qualifier:
Animals
Blood-Borne Pathogens
Communicable Diseases, Emerging / epidemiology,  prevention & control
Environmental Monitoring
Health Policy
Humans
International Cooperation
Pandemics / prevention & control*
Travel
Virus Diseases / epidemiology,  prevention & control
World Health
Zoonoses / epidemiology*
Grant Support
ID/Acronym/Agency:
2R01-TW005869/TW/FIC NIH HHS; AI079231/AI/NIAID NIH HHS; AI57158/AI/NIAID NIH HHS; R01 AI079231/AI/NIAID NIH HHS; R01 AI092571/AI/NIAID NIH HHS; R01 GM100471/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS; R01 TW005869/TW/FIC NIH HHS; U54 AI057158/AI/NIAID NIH HHS; //Wellcome Trust
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