| Prediction and prevention of the next pandemic zoonosis. | |
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MedLine Citation:
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PMID: 23200504 Owner: NLM Status: In-Process |
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
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Most pandemics--eg, HIV/AIDS, severe acute respiratory syndrome, pandemic influenza--originate in animals, are caused by viruses, and are driven to emerge by ecological, behavioural, or socioeconomic changes. Despite their substantial effects on global public health and growing understanding of the process by which they emerge, no pandemic has been predicted before infecting human beings. We review what is known about the pathogens that emerge, the hosts that they originate in, and the factors that drive their emergence. We discuss challenges to their control and new efforts to predict pandemics, target surveillance to the most crucial interfaces, and identify prevention strategies. New mathematical modelling, diagnostic, communications, and informatics technologies can identify and report hitherto unknown microbes in other species, and thus new risk assessment approaches are needed to identify microbes most likely to cause human disease. We lay out a series of research and surveillance opportunities and goals that could help to overcome these challenges and move the global pandemic strategy from response to pre-emption. |
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Authors:
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Stephen S Morse; Jonna A K Mazet; Mark Woolhouse; Colin R Parrish; Dennis Carroll; William B Karesh; Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio; W Ian Lipkin; Peter Daszak |
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Publication Detail:
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Type: Journal Article; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. |
Journal Detail:
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Title: Lancet Volume: 380 ISSN: 1474-547X ISO Abbreviation: Lancet Publication Date: 2012 Dec |
Date Detail:
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Created Date: 2012-12-03 Completed Date: - Revised Date: - |
Medline Journal Info:
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Nlm Unique ID: 2985213R Medline TA: Lancet Country: England |
Other Details:
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Languages: eng Pagination: 1956-65 Citation Subset: AIM; IM |
Copyright Information:
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Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
Affiliation:
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Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA. |
Export Citation:
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Descriptor/Qualifier:
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| Grant Support | |
ID/Acronym/Agency:
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2R01-TW005869/TW/FIC NIH HHS; AI079231/AI/NIAID NIH HHS; AI57158/AI/NIAID NIH HHS; //Wellcome Trust |
From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine
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