Document Detail

Prediction of patient-specific risk of early preterm delivery using maternal history and sonographic measurement of cervical length: a population-based prospective study.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  16565989     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
OBJECTIVE: To develop a model for calculating the patient-specific risk of spontaneous early preterm delivery by combining maternal factors and the transvaginal sonographic measurement of cervical length at 22 + 0 to 24 + 6 weeks, and to compare the detection rate of this method to that achieved from screening by cervical length or maternal characteristics alone. METHODS: This was a population-based prospective multicenter study involving 40,995 unselected women with singleton pregnancies attending for routine hospital antenatal care in London, UK. Complete follow-up was obtained from 39,284 (95.8%) cases. The main outcomes were detection rate, false-positive rate and accuracy of predicting spontaneous delivery before 32 weeks' gestation. RESULTS: Spontaneous delivery before 32 weeks occurred in 235 (0.6%) cases. The detection rate of screening for early preterm delivery, at a fixed false-positive rate of 10%, was 38% for maternal factors, 55% for cervical length and 69% for combined testing. There was good agreement between the model estimates and the observed probabilities of preterm delivery. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a model that can give an accurate patient-specific risk of preterm delivery. The detection rate of screening by a combination of maternal factors and the measurement of cervical length was substantially higher than that of screening by each method alone.
M S To; C A Skentou; P Royston; C K H Yu; K H Nicolaides
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article; Multicenter Study    
Journal Detail:
Title:  Ultrasound in obstetrics & gynecology : the official journal of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology     Volume:  27     ISSN:  0960-7692     ISO Abbreviation:  Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol     Publication Date:  2006 Apr 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2006-04-03     Completed Date:  2006-12-05     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  9108340     Medline TA:  Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol     Country:  England    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  362-7     Citation Subset:  IM    
Copyright Information:
Copyright 2006 ISUOG.
Harris Birthright Research Centre for Fetal Medicine, King's College Hospital Medical School, London, UK.
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MeSH Terms
Age Factors
Cervix Uteri / ultrasonography*
Continental Population Groups
Logistic Models
Middle Aged
Obstetric Labor, Premature / diagnosis*
Pregnancy Trimester, Second
Prospective Studies
Risk Assessment / methods
Sensitivity and Specificity
Ultrasonography, Prenatal*

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine

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