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Predicting death or major neurodevelopmental disability in extremely preterm infants born in Australia.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  23134711     Owner:  NLM     Status:  Publisher    
BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to determine if the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) calculator, designed to predict mortality or neurosensory disability in infants 22-25 weeks' gestation, was valid for contemporary Australian infants. METHOD: Outcome data at 2 years of age for 114 infants who were liveborn in Victoria, Australia, in 2005, between 22 and 25 completed weeks' gestation, weighing 401-1000 g at birth, and free of lethal anomalies, were entered into the NICHD online calculator. Predicted outcomes were then compared with the actual outcomes. RESULTS: Of the 114 infants, 99 (87%) were inborn and 15 (13%) were outborn. The overall prediction of death for inborn infants was 47.1% compared with the actual death rate to 2 years of age of 49.5%. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.803 (95% CI 0.718 to 0.888; p<0.001) for mortality, comparable with the AUC for the NICHD study (AUC: 0.753; 95% CI 0.737 to 0.769; p<0.001). The accuracy for predicting death was not as precise for outborn infants (AUC: 0.643; 95% CI 0.337 to 0.949; p=0.36). The calculator overestimated the combined outcome of death or survival with major disability at 72.0%, compared with an actual rate of 60.5%. CONCLUSIONS: The NICHD outcome estimator was helpful in predicting mortality for inborn infants, 22-25 weeks' gestation, but was less precise for outborn infants. It overestimated the combined outcome of death or major disability in infants born in Victoria, Australia, in 2005.
Rosemarie A Boland; Peter G Davis; Jennifer A Dawson; Lex W Doyle;
Publication Detail:
Type:  JOURNAL ARTICLE     Date:  2012-11-7
Journal Detail:
Title:  Archives of disease in childhood. Fetal and neonatal edition     Volume:  -     ISSN:  1468-2052     ISO Abbreviation:  Arch. Dis. Child. Fetal Neonatal Ed.     Publication Date:  2012 Nov 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2012-11-8     Completed Date:  -     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  9501297     Medline TA:  Arch Dis Child Fetal Neonatal Ed     Country:  -    
Other Details:
Languages:  ENG     Pagination:  -     Citation Subset:  -    
1Department of Obstetrics & Gynaecology, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
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