Document Detail

[Predicting spread of new pandemic swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) in local mid-size city: evaluation of hospital bed shortage and effectiveness of vaccination].
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  20134108     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
OBJECTIVES: On April 24th, 2009, a new swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) was first reported in Mexico. Japan confirmed cases of the flu on May 9th, and the pandemic in Japan has become full-scale. The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan announced that the first peak of this pandemic was predicted to occur in October, 2009. Therefore, it is most important to predict the progress of this pandemic to be able to use medical resources effectively in Japan.
METHODS: We used a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model to calculate the number of infected people and hospital bed shortage during this pandemic. In this model, available medical resources were investigated on the basis of four vaccination scenarios.
RESULTS: Our model showed that it would take a further six months for the pandemic to peak than was predicted by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan. Without vaccination, at the peak of the pandemic 23,689 out of 400,000 people would be infected and the hospital bed shortage would reach 7,349 in total.
CONCLUSIONS: We suggest that mathematical models are strong tools to predict the spread of infectious diseases. According to our model, it is possible to prevent hospital bed shortage by vaccination.
Shouhei Takeuchi; Yoshiki Kuroda
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Publication Detail:
Type:  English Abstract; Journal Article    
Journal Detail:
Title:  Nihon eiseigaku zasshi. Japanese journal of hygiene     Volume:  65     ISSN:  0021-5082     ISO Abbreviation:  Nihon Eiseigaku Zasshi     Publication Date:  2010 Jan 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2010-02-05     Completed Date:  2010-04-01     Revised Date:  2011-07-27    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  0417457     Medline TA:  Nihon Eiseigaku Zasshi     Country:  Japan    
Other Details:
Languages:  jpn     Pagination:  48-52     Citation Subset:  IM    
Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Miyazaki, Miyazaki, Japan.
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MeSH Terms
Disease Outbreaks
Health Resources / statistics & numerical data
Hospital Bed Capacity / statistics & numerical data*
Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype*
Influenza Vaccines
Influenza, Human / epidemiology*,  prevention & control*
Japan / epidemiology
Mass Vaccination
Models, Statistical
Models, Theoretical
Reg. No./Substance:
0/Influenza Vaccines

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