Document Detail

Population forecasts and confidence intervals for Sweden: a comparison of model-based and empirical approaches.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  3484356     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
This paper compares several methods of generating confidence intervals for forecasts of population size. Two rest on a demographic model for age-structured populations with stochastic fluctuations in vital rates. Two rest on empirical analyses of past forecasts of population sizes of Sweden at five-year intervals from 1780 to 1980 inclusive. Confidence intervals produced by the different methods vary substantially. The relative sizes differ in the various historical periods. The narrowest intervals offer a lower bound on uncertainty about the future. Procedures for estimating a range of confidence intervals are tentatively recommended. A major lesson is that finitely many observations of the past and incomplete theoretical understanding of the present and future can justify at best a range of confidence intervals for population projections. Uncertainty attaches not only to the point forecasts of future population, but also to the estimates of those forecasts' uncertainty.
J E Cohen
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Comparative Study; Journal Article; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.    
Journal Detail:
Title:  Demography     Volume:  23     ISSN:  0070-3370     ISO Abbreviation:  Demography     Publication Date:  1986 Feb 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  1986-04-25     Completed Date:  1986-04-25     Revised Date:  2006-11-15    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  0226703     Medline TA:  Demography     Country:  UNITED STATES    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  105-26     Citation Subset:  IM    
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MeSH Terms
Models, Theoretical
Population Dynamics
Population Growth*
Erratum In:
Demography 1988 May;25(2):315

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine

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