| Perceived risk and modal choice: risk compensation in transportation systems. | |
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MedLine Citation:
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PMID: 7546064 Owner: NLM Status: MEDLINE |
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
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A transportation mode choice analysis is performed that examines behavioral responses to perceived risk in the choice of mode for daily commute trips. This methodology provides a technique for examining, by means of disaggregate individual level data, risk-compensating effects in transportation systems. Various measures of perceived risk are examined for explaining modal choice. Other studies have described how safety regulations have resulted in increases in "driving intensity." This study defines one component of driving intensity to be the increased probability of commuting by automobile. The results show that modal shifts occur when risk perceptions for a given mode are reduced. To demonstrate potential risk-compensating effects within the transportation system, an estimate of changes in accident fatalities due to commuting is derived using rough estimates of fatalities per person-mile travelled. It is shown that a given change in the perceived risk of commuting by automobile results in a less than proportionate change in net commuting fatalities. The relative magnitude is dependent on how objective reductions in risk translate into perceived reductions in risk. This study also shows that perceived safety improvements in bicycle transportation have an aggregate elasticity value that is greater than one. This means that bicycle safety improvements attract proportionately more people to bicycle commuting (i.e. a 10% increase in safety results in a greater than 10% increase in the share of people bicycle commuting). |
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Authors:
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R B Noland |
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Publication Detail:
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Type: Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
Journal Detail:
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Title: Accident; analysis and prevention Volume: 27 ISSN: 0001-4575 ISO Abbreviation: Accid Anal Prev Publication Date: 1995 Aug |
Date Detail:
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Created Date: 1995-11-21 Completed Date: 1995-11-21 Revised Date: 2006-11-15 |
Medline Journal Info:
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Nlm Unique ID: 1254476 Medline TA: Accid Anal Prev Country: ENGLAND |
Other Details:
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Languages: eng Pagination: 503-21 Citation Subset: IM |
Affiliation:
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Department of Economics, School of Social Sciences, University of California, Irvine 92717, USA. |
Export Citation:
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APA/MLA Format Download EndNote Download BibTex |
| MeSH Terms | |
Descriptor/Qualifier:
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Accidents, Traffic
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mortality,
psychology*,
statistics & numerical data Attitude to Health Choice Behavior* Female Humans Logistic Models Male Probability Psychological Theory Questionnaires Risk-Taking* Safety Transportation / methods* |
From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine
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