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Pandemic influenza dynamics and the breakdown of herd immunity.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  20025204     Owner:  NLM     Status:  PubMed-not-MEDLINE    
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
Few if any attempts have been made to derive forecasts for the ongoing H1N1 pandemic as extrapolated from knowledge of seasonal influenza. Even simple back-of-the-envelope calculations are lacking. In this note we use first-approximation parameter estimates for the SIR model to compare seasonal and pandemic influenza, and then explore the implications of the existing classical epidemiological theory. In particular, we note the dramatic nonlinear increase in attack rate as a function of the percentage of susceptibles initially present in the population. This has severe consequences for the pandemic, given the general lack of immunity in the global population.
Authors:
Guy Katriel; Lewi Stone
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article     Date:  2009-10-01
Journal Detail:
Title:  PLoS currents     Volume:  1     ISSN:  2157-3999     ISO Abbreviation:  PLoS Curr     Publication Date:  2009  
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2009-12-22     Completed Date:  2010-02-12     Revised Date:  2010-10-22    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  101515638     Medline TA:  PLoS Curr     Country:  United States    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  RRN1046     Citation Subset:  -    
Affiliation:
Biomathematics Unit, Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University.
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