Document Detail


Pandemic influenza dynamics and the breakdown of herd immunity.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  20025204     Owner:  NLM     Status:  PubMed-not-MEDLINE    
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
Few if any attempts have been made to derive forecasts for the ongoing H1N1 pandemic as extrapolated from knowledge of seasonal influenza. Even simple back-of-the-envelope calculations are lacking. In this note we use first-approximation parameter estimates for the SIR model to compare seasonal and pandemic influenza, and then explore the implications of the existing classical epidemiological theory. In particular, we note the dramatic nonlinear increase in attack rate as a function of the percentage of susceptibles initially present in the population. This has severe consequences for the pandemic, given the general lack of immunity in the global population.
Authors:
Guy Katriel; Lewi Stone
Related Documents :
20091354 - Global stability for delay sir and seir epidemic models with nonlinear incidence rate.
10669894 - Multihost, multiparasite systems: an application of bifurcation theory.
12609464 - A model appropriate to the transmission of a human food-borne pathogen in a multigroup ...
19432634 - Model answers or trivial pursuits? the role of mathematical models in influenza pandemi...
10078244 - Noninvasive monitoring of rotary blood pumps: necessity, possibilities, and limitations.
21170984 - Padel-descriptor: an open source software to calculate molecular descriptors and finger...
Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article     Date:  2009-10-01
Journal Detail:
Title:  PLoS currents     Volume:  1     ISSN:  2157-3999     ISO Abbreviation:  PLoS Curr     Publication Date:  2009  
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2009-12-22     Completed Date:  2010-02-12     Revised Date:  2010-10-22    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  101515638     Medline TA:  PLoS Curr     Country:  United States    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  RRN1046     Citation Subset:  -    
Affiliation:
Biomathematics Unit, Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University.
Export Citation:
APA/MLA Format     Download EndNote     Download BibTex
MeSH Terms
Descriptor/Qualifier:
Comments/Corrections

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine


Previous Document:  SeqMonitor: Influenza Analysis Pipeline and Visualization.
Next Document:  Economic cost and health care workforce effects of school closures in the U.S.