Document Detail

Optimal temperature for malaria transmission is dramatically lower than previously predicted.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  23050931     Owner:  NLM     Status:  Publisher    
The ecology of mosquito vectors and malaria parasites affect the incidence, seasonal transmission and geographical range of malaria. Most malaria models to date assume constant or linear responses of mosquito and parasite life-history traits to temperature, predicting optimal transmission at 31 °C. These models are at odds with field observations of transmission dating back nearly a century. We build a model with more realistic ecological assumptions about the thermal physiology of insects. Our model, which includes empirically derived nonlinear thermal responses, predicts optimal malaria transmission at 25 °C (6 °C lower than previous models). Moreover, the model predicts that transmission decreases dramatically at temperatures > 28 °C, altering predictions about how climate change will affect malaria. A large data set on malaria transmission risk in Africa validates both the 25 °C optimum and the decline above 28 °C. Using these more accurate nonlinear thermal-response models will aid in understanding the effects of current and future temperature regimes on disease transmission.
Erin A Mordecai; Krijn P Paaijmans; Leah R Johnson; Christian Balzer; Tal Ben-Horin; Emily de Moor; Amy McNally; Samraat Pawar; Sadie J Ryan; Thomas C Smith; Kevin D Lafferty; Peter Thrall
Publication Detail:
Type:  LETTER     Date:  2012-10-11
Journal Detail:
Title:  Ecology letters     Volume:  -     ISSN:  1461-0248     ISO Abbreviation:  Ecol. Lett.     Publication Date:  2012 Oct 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2012-10-11     Completed Date:  -     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  101121949     Medline TA:  Ecol Lett     Country:  -    
Other Details:
Languages:  ENG     Pagination:  -     Citation Subset:  -    
Copyright Information:
© 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.
Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology Department, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106, USA.
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