Document Detail

Occurrence and nonoccurrence of random sequences: comment on Hahn and Warren (2009).
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  20438245     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
On the basis of the statistical concept of waiting time and on computer simulations of the "probabilities of nonoccurrence" (p. 457) for random sequences, Hahn and Warren (2009) proposed that given people's experience of a finite data stream from the environment, the gambler's fallacy is not as gross an error as it might seem. We deal with two critical issues in Hahn and Warren's argument, a possible ambiguity in distinguishing the events of occurrence and nonoccurrence, and an incomplete consideration of the context in which the statistics of waiting time are defined. Our analyses show that the statistics of waiting time and the probabilities of nonoccurrence, once correctly interpreted, do not vindicate the error in the gambler's fallacy.
Yanlong Sun; Ryan D Tweney; Hongbin Wang
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Comment; Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.    
Journal Detail:
Title:  Psychological review     Volume:  117     ISSN:  1939-1471     ISO Abbreviation:  Psychol Rev     Publication Date:  2010 Apr 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2010-05-04     Completed Date:  2010-09-14     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  0376476     Medline TA:  Psychol Rev     Country:  United States    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  697-705; discussion 706-11     Citation Subset:  IM    
Copyright Information:
PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved.
School of Health Information Sciences, University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
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MeSH Terms
Probability Theory
Time Perception
Comment On:
Psychol Rev. 2009 Apr;116(2):454-61   [PMID:  19348550 ]

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