Document Detail


A Novel Nomogram Accurately Quantifies the Risk of Mortality in Elderly Patients Undergoing Colorectal Surgery.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  23001078     Owner:  NLM     Status:  Publisher    
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
OBJECTIVE:: The ability to accurately predict postoperative mortality is expected to improve preoperative decisions for elderly patients considered for colorectal surgery. METHODS:: Patients undergoing colorectal surgery were identified from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database (2005-2007) and stratified as elderly (>70 years) and nonelderly (<70 years). Univariate analysis of preoperative risk factors and 30-day mortality and morbidity were analyzed on 70% of the population. A nomogram for mortality was created and tested on the remaining 30%. RESULTS:: Of 30,900 colorectal cases, 10,750 were elderly (>70 years). Mortality increased steadily with age (0.5% every 5 years) and at a faster rate (1.2% every 5 years) after 70 years, which defined "elderly" in this study. Elderly (mean age: 78.4 years) and nonelderly patients (52.8 years) had mortality of 7.6% versus 2.0% and a morbidity of 32.8% versus 25.7%, respectively. Elderly patients had greater preoperative comorbidities including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (10.5% vs 3.8%), diabetes (18.7% vs 11.1%), and renal insufficiency (3.3% vs 2.1%). A multivariate model for 30-day mortality and nomogram were created. Increasing age was associated with mortality [age >70 years: odds ratio (OR) = 2.0 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.7-2.4); >85 years: OR = 4.3 (95% CI: 3.3-5.5)]. The nomogram accurately predicted mortality, including very high-risk (>50% mortality) with a concordant index for this model of 0.89. CONCLUSIONS:: Colorectal surgery in elderly patients is associated with significantly higher mortality. This novel nomogram that predicts postoperative mortality may facilitate preoperative treatment decisions.
Authors:
Ravi P Kiran; Vikram Attaluri; Jeff Hammel; James Church
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Publication Detail:
Type:  JOURNAL ARTICLE     Date:  2012-9-21
Journal Detail:
Title:  Annals of surgery     Volume:  -     ISSN:  1528-1140     ISO Abbreviation:  Ann. Surg.     Publication Date:  2012 Sep 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2012-9-24     Completed Date:  -     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  0372354     Medline TA:  Ann Surg     Country:  -    
Other Details:
Languages:  ENG     Pagination:  -     Citation Subset:  -    
Affiliation:
Department of Colorectal Surgery, Cleveland Clinic, 9500 Euclid Ave, Cleveland, OH 44195.
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