| Modelling the dynamics of dengue real epidemics. | |
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MedLine Citation:
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PMID: 21078642 Owner: NLM Status: MEDLINE |
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
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In this work, we use a mathematical model for dengue transmission with the aim of analysing and comparing two dengue epidemics that occurred in Salvador, Brazil, in 1995-1996 and 2002. Using real data, we obtain the force of infection, Λ, and the basic reproductive number, R(0), for both epidemics. We also obtain the time evolution of the effective reproduction number, R(t), which results in a very suitable measure to compare the patterns of both epidemics. Based on the analysis of the behaviour of R(0) and R(t) in relation to the adult mosquito control parameter of the model, we show that the control applied only to the adult stage of the mosquito population is not sufficient to stop dengue transmission, emphasizing the importance of applying the control to the aquatic phase of the mosquito. |
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Authors:
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S T R Pinho; C P Ferreira; L Esteva; F R Barreto; V C Morato e Silva; M G L Teixeira |
Publication Detail:
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Type: Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
Journal Detail:
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Title: Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences Volume: 368 ISSN: 1364-503X ISO Abbreviation: Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci Publication Date: 2010 Dec |
Date Detail:
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Created Date: 2010-11-16 Completed Date: 2011-01-13 Revised Date: 2013-04-24 |
Medline Journal Info:
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Nlm Unique ID: 101133385 Medline TA: Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci Country: England |
Other Details:
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Languages: eng Pagination: 5679-93 Citation Subset: IM |
Affiliation:
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Instituto de Física, Universidade Federal da Bahia, 40210-340, Salvador, BA, Brazil. suani@ufba.br |
Export Citation:
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| MeSH Terms | |
Descriptor/Qualifier:
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Algorithms Animals Brazil Cities Culicidae Dengue / diagnosis, epidemiology* Disease Outbreaks* Disease-Free Survival Humans Models, Statistical Models, Theoretical Temperature |
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