Document Detail

Modelling antiviral treatment to prevent hepatitis C infection among people who inject drugs in Victoria, Australia.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  22676879     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
OBJECTIVES: To develop a mathematical model to project the potential impact of hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment on HCV infection prevalence among people who inject drugs (PWID).
DESIGN AND SETTING: An existing model of HCV transmission among PWID was parameterised using data from Victoria, Australia, including specific parameter estimates of the number of people who are currently active injecting drug users, average duration of injecting, chronic HCV infection prevalence among PWID, annual mortality, and annual HCV treatment rate. We also explored the impact of prevalence uncertainty, program scale-up, and new treatments.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Prevalence of chronic HCV infection among people who are currently active injecting drug users.
RESULTS: With annual treatment rates of 13, 17, or 25 per 1000 PWID, the model predicts relative prevalence reductions of 20%, 30%, and 50%, respectively, within 30 years. If new treatments giving higher sustained viral response rates are available in 5 years, estimated impact is increased by 21%–23% at 15 years, and 17%–38% at 30 years, depending on treatment rates.
CONCLUSIONS: This model suggests that modest rates of current HCV treatment among PWID in Victoria, Australia could halve HCV infection prevalence among PWID in 30 years. This finding suggests that interventions aimed at increasing access to HCV treatment in community clinics will benefit individual PWID and reduce HCV infection prevalence.
Margaret E Hellard; Rebecca Jenkinson; Peter Higgs; Mark A Stoové; Rachel Sacks-Davis; Judy Gold; Matthew Hickman; Peter Vickerman; Natasha K Martin
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Evaluation Studies; Journal Article    
Journal Detail:
Title:  The Medical journal of Australia     Volume:  196     ISSN:  1326-5377     ISO Abbreviation:  Med. J. Aust.     Publication Date:  2012 Jun 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2012-06-08     Completed Date:  2012-08-16     Revised Date:  2014-03-14    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  0400714     Medline TA:  Med J Aust     Country:  Australia    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  638-41     Citation Subset:  IM    
Export Citation:
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MeSH Terms
Antiviral Agents / therapeutic use*
Drug Therapy, Combination
Drug Users*
Hepatitis C, Chronic / epidemiology,  prevention & control*,  transmission
Interferon-alpha / therapeutic use*
Models, Biological*
Polyethylene Glycols / therapeutic use*
Recombinant Proteins / therapeutic use
Ribavirin / therapeutic use*
Substance Abuse, Intravenous / complications*
Victoria / epidemiology
Grant Support
G0701627//Medical Research Council; G1000021//Medical Research Council; PDF-2011-04-049//Department of Health; RP-DG-0610-10055//Department of Health
Reg. No./Substance:
0/Antiviral Agents; 0/Interferon-alpha; 0/Polyethylene Glycols; 0/Recombinant Proteins; 0/peginterferon alfa-2a; 49717AWG6K/Ribavirin
Comment In:
Med J Aust. 2012 Jun 4;196(10):614   [PMID:  22676864 ]

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine

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