Document Detail


Modeling spatial and temporal transmission of foot-and-mouth disease in France: identification of high-risk areas.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  16120246     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
Abstract/OtherAbstract:
Foot-and-mouth disease is one of the most contagious diseases of animal livestock. We used statistical tools to explore the dynamics of epidemics and to evaluate the consequences of virus reintroduction in France. We developed a stochastic farm-based model adapted to the French farm structure from previous modeling works following the 2001 epidemic in the United Kingdom. This model depends upon the distance between the 280,000 French farms and on species type (e.g. cows and sheep) and it tracks each animal's farm status at any given day. Since data were only available at the town scale, the farm location and the number of animals in each farm were simulated over the surface area of each French town, as well as the number of mixed farms. Based on 200 simulations of the model, our results allowed for the study of local disease transmission, since it begins simulations once limitation of movement is put into place. On average, the same 50 randomly chosen initially infected farms would lead to 1,110 infected farms (610; 1,590) when two control strategies (culling within 0.5 km from an infected farm and vaccination within 3 km) are put into place. Regions with high densities of cows and sheep (e.g. Pays-de-la-Loire) are high-risk zones, confirming that the epidemic process depends upon the location and the type of initially infected farms (size, species type). The results of this model highlight the importance of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to obtain more precise data concerning herds.
Authors:
Arnaud Le Menach; Judith Legrand; Rebecca F Grais; Cécile Viboud; Alain-Jacques Valleron; Antoine Flahault
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article    
Journal Detail:
Title:  Veterinary research     Volume:  36     ISSN:  0928-4249     ISO Abbreviation:  Vet. Res.     Publication Date:    2005 Sep-Dec
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2005-08-25     Completed Date:  2005-10-18     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  9309551     Medline TA:  Vet Res     Country:  France    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  699-712     Citation Subset:  IM    
Affiliation:
INSERM Unité 444, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Epidémiologie et Sciences de 'Information Biomédicale, 27 rue Chaligny, 75012 Paris, France. arnaud.lemenach@u707.jussieu.fr
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MeSH Terms
Descriptor/Qualifier:
Animals
Foot-and-Mouth Disease / epidemiology*,  prevention & control,  transmission
France / epidemiology
Models, Biological
Reproducibility of Results
Risk Factors
Sensitivity and Specificity

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine


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