Document Detail

Modeling influenza incidence for the purpose of on-line monitoring.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  17698935     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
We describe and discuss statistical models of Swedish influenza data, with special focus on aspects which are important in on-line monitoring. Earlier suggested statistical models are reviewed and the possibility of using them to describe the variation in influenza-like illness (ILI) and laboratory diagnoses (LDI) is discussed. Exponential functions were found to work better than earlier suggested models for describing the influenza incidence. However, the parameters of the estimated functions varied considerably between years. For monitoring purposes we need models which focus on stable indicators of the change at the outbreak and at the peak.For outbreak detection we focus on ILI data. Instead of a parametric estimate of the baseline (which could be very uncertain), we suggest a model utilizing the monotonicity property of a rise in the incidence. For ILI data at the outbreak, Poisson distributions can be used as a first approximation.To confirm that the peak has occurred and the decline has started, we focus on LDI data. A Gaussian distribution is a reasonable approximation near the peak. In view of the variability of the shape of the peak, we suggest that a detection system use the monotonicity properties of a peak.
Eva Andersson; David Bock; Marianne Frisén
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't     Date:  2007-08-14
Journal Detail:
Title:  Statistical methods in medical research     Volume:  17     ISSN:  0962-2802     ISO Abbreviation:  Stat Methods Med Res     Publication Date:  2008 Aug 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2008-08-04     Completed Date:  2008-12-29     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  9212457     Medline TA:  Stat Methods Med Res     Country:  England    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  421-38     Citation Subset:  IM    
Department of Economics, Göteborg University, Göteborg, Sweden.
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MeSH Terms
Disease Outbreaks
Influenza, Human / epidemiology*
Least-Squares Analysis
Poisson Distribution
Population Surveillance
Statistics, Nonparametric
Stochastic Processes
Sweden / epidemiology

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