Document Detail

Mapping and estimating the population at risk from lymphatic filariasis in Africa.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  10748895     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
Lymphatic filariasis remains a major public health problem in Africa and is 1 of the World Health Organization's 6 diseases targeted for global eradication. However, no detailed maps of the geographical distribution of this disease exist, making it difficult to target control activities and quantify the population at risk. We hypothesized that the distribution lymphatic filariasis is governed by climate. The climate at sites in Africa where surveys for lymphatic filariasis had taken place was characterized using computerized climate surfaces. Logistic regression analysis of the climate variables predicted with 76% accuracy whether sites had microfilaraemic patients or not. We used the logistic equation in a geographical information system to map risk of lymphatic filariasis infection across Africa, which compared favourably with expert opinion. Further validation with a quasi-independent data set showed that the model predicted correctly 88% of infected sites. A similar procedure was used to map risk of microfilaraemia in Egypt, where the dominant vector species differs from those in sub-Saharan Africa. By overlaying risk maps on a 1990 population grid, and adjusting for recent population increases, we estimate that around 420 million people will be exposed to this infection in Africa in the year 2000. This approach could be used to produce a sampling frame, based on estimated risk of microfilaraemia, for conducting filariasis surveys in countries that lack accurate distribution maps and thus save on costs.
S W Lindsay; C J Thomas
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article    
Journal Detail:
Title:  Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene     Volume:  94     ISSN:  0035-9203     ISO Abbreviation:  Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg.     Publication Date:    2000 Jan-Feb
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2000-04-26     Completed Date:  2000-04-26     Revised Date:  2004-11-17    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  7506129     Medline TA:  Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg     Country:  ENGLAND    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  37-45     Citation Subset:  IM    
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Durham, UK.
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MeSH Terms
Africa / epidemiology
Data Collection
Elephantiasis, Filarial / epidemiology*,  transmission
Health Surveys
Logistic Models*
Risk Factors
Topography, Medical
Tropical Climate*
Wuchereria bancrofti*

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