Document Detail

Long-term effect of the North Carolina graduated driver licensing system on licensed driver crash incidence: a 5-year survival analysis.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  20728613     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
Several studies document the success of graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems in reducing young teen crash rates, but it is not yet clear whether any portion of the crash reduction is achieved by producing more capable drivers. The purpose of this study was to determine whether young teen drivers licensed under the North Carolina GDL system remain crash-free longer than those licensed prior to GDL, independent of the crude reductions in exposure (i.e., decreasing and delaying licensure) that may be responsible for most documented effects of GDL. Survival analysis was used to compare retrospective cohorts of 16-17 year olds before (n=105,569) and after (n=327,054) the North Carolina GDL system was implemented. The crash incidence of GDL-licensed 16-17 year olds (combined) was 10% lower than that for pre-GDL teens for at least 5 years after being licensed to drive independently (hazard ratio [HR]=0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.89, 0.91). However, more refined analysis revealed the reductions to only be among females (7%; HR=0.93; CI=0.91, 0.94) and males (15%; HR=0.85, CI=0.84, 0.87) licensed at age 16 and not among females (0%; HR=1.00; CI=0.95, 1.06) and males (0%; HR=1.00; CI=0.92, 1.09) licensed at age 17. Sixteen-year-old drivers licensed under the North Carolina GDL system experienced lower first-crash incidence during the first 5 years of unsupervised driving than did those licensed under the previous system. The benefits are greater for males, who tend to have higher crash rates. The findings contradict conventional wisdom that the entire benefit of GDL results merely from decreasing or delaying licensure among young drivers.
Scott V Masten; Robert D Foss
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article     Date:  2010-04-28
Journal Detail:
Title:  Accident; analysis and prevention     Volume:  42     ISSN:  1879-2057     ISO Abbreviation:  Accid Anal Prev     Publication Date:  2010 Nov 
Date Detail:
Created Date:  2010-08-23     Completed Date:  2010-12-16     Revised Date:  -    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  1254476     Medline TA:  Accid Anal Prev     Country:  England    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  1647-52     Citation Subset:  IM    
Copyright Information:
2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
University of North Carolina Highway Safety Research Center, 730 Martin Luther King, Jr Blvd, Suite 300/Campus Box 3430, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3430, United States.
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MeSH Terms
Accidents, Traffic / legislation & jurisprudence*,  prevention & control*,  statistics & numerical data
Age Factors
Automobile Driver Examination / legislation & jurisprudence*
Cohort Studies
Cross-Sectional Studies
Kaplan-Meier Estimate
Licensure / legislation & jurisprudence*
North Carolina
Proportional Hazards Models
Retrospective Studies
Safety / standards
Sex Factors

From MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine

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