Document Detail

Lifetime fracture risk: an approach to hip fracture risk assessment based on bone mineral density and age.
MedLine Citation:
PMID:  3193143     Owner:  NLM     Status:  MEDLINE    
Hip fractures occur late in life following a substantial reduction in skeletal mass. If risk for such fractures could be predicted early, efforts to prevent excessive bone loss would be more successful and could be directed at the individuals most likely to be affected. With this objective in mind, we devised an approach to estimating the lifetime risk of a proximal femur fracture based on age and on current femoral bone mineral density, using population-based data from ongoing studies of osteoporosis and fractures among Rochester, Minnesota, women. Our calculations indicate that, at any given age, the lifetime risk of a proximal femur fracture rises as current bone density diminishes. At any given level of femoral bone density, lifetime risk rises with younger age and increasing life expectancy. While these trends seem robust, estimates of risk vary substantially with the assumptions that underlie the model. Consequently, these assumptions must be validated before our findings can be applied clinically to predict risk for individual patients.
L J Melton; S H Kan; H W Wahner; B L Riggs
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Publication Detail:
Type:  Journal Article; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.    
Journal Detail:
Title:  Journal of clinical epidemiology     Volume:  41     ISSN:  0895-4356     ISO Abbreviation:  J Clin Epidemiol     Publication Date:  1988  
Date Detail:
Created Date:  1989-01-05     Completed Date:  1989-01-05     Revised Date:  2007-11-14    
Medline Journal Info:
Nlm Unique ID:  8801383     Medline TA:  J Clin Epidemiol     Country:  ENGLAND    
Other Details:
Languages:  eng     Pagination:  985-94     Citation Subset:  IM; S    
Department of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic and Foundation, Rochester, MN 55905.
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MeSH Terms
Age Factors
Aged, 80 and over
Bone and Bones*
Hip Fractures / epidemiology,  etiology*
Life Expectancy
Middle Aged
Risk Factors
Grant Support
Reg. No./Substance:

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